SpaceX Earnings Today: What Wall Street Expects as Stock Sits 35% Below IPO Peak

All eyes are on SpaceX earnings today. Elon Musk’s rocket and satellite company reports its third-quarter 2026 results after the US market close on October 20, in only its second quarterly report since going public in June. With the stock down 35% from its post-IPO peak, tonight’s SpaceX earnings will decide whether the recovery rally since August has real fuel behind it — or was just a dead-cat bounce.

The company has scheduled a live, audio-only webcast at 3:30 p.m. Central Time (4:30 p.m. ET) through its investor relations portal, according to reports from Livemint and the Economic Times. Here is what Wall Street is watching when the SpaceX earnings numbers drop.

SpaceX Earnings Expectations: $12.74 Billion Revenue

Analysts expect SpaceX earnings to show third-quarter revenue of about $12.74 billion and earnings of $0.14 per share, according to data compiled by LSEG and reported by the Economic Times. A separate report from Defense World puts the consensus at roughly $12.9 billion in revenue and the same $0.14 EPS figure.

That would mark a huge sequential jump from the debut report. SpaceX earnings for the second quarter showed revenue of $7.8 billion — up 92% year over year — though the company posted a net loss of $541 million for the period, according to Nasdaq‘s recap of the earnings call. The Q2 loss was actually an improvement, narrowing by $467 million from the prior quarter, while adjusted EBITDA surged 191% year over year to $3.5 billion.

The central question for investors tonight: does the third quarter support the breakneck trajectory the company sketched in July? CFO Bret Johnsen told investors the company was on course to reach $100 billion in annualized revenue by year end, driven largely by AI compute contracts. Whether SpaceX earnings back that up is the make-or-break question.

Starlink and AI: The Two Engines of SpaceX Earnings

Starlink, the satellite broadband division, was the largest single contributor to SpaceX earnings last quarter at $4.3 billion, with connectivity revenue up 66% year over year. The company now has 12 million Starlink subscriptions — double the count from a year ago — and more than 11,000 satellites in orbit, up from 6,750 in February. Musk has outlined a staggering plan for 100,000 coverage satellites and a separate fleet of one million “Starmind” AI satellites, described as miniature data centers to be deployed in orbit.

But the real story in SpaceX earnings may be AI. The company absorbed Musk’s xAI in February, months before the June IPO, and the AI segment is doing what analysts describe as the heavy lifting. AI revenue surged 247% year over year in Q2, and the company has signed multiyear contracts with Alphabet and Anthropic, per a Motley Fool analysis. Evercore ISI expects SpaceX to exit 2026 at an annualized revenue run rate of about $104 billion, with AI doing “most of the heavy lifting.”

The cost of that AI bet is enormous. SpaceX earnings in Q2 included $15.8 billion in AI capital spending, and Evercore estimates capital expenditures could reach about $151 billion in 2027. Investors watching tonight’s SpaceX earnings will want proof that the spending is turning into revenue, not just burning through the war chest. The company ended Q2 with $100 billion in cash and marketable securities and $47.5 billion in backlog, after raising approximately $85.7 billion in net IPO proceeds and issuing $25 billion in senior notes.

SpaceX Stock: 35% Off the Peak, Options Braced for a Big Move

The SPCX ticker has been on a wild ride. SpaceX stock has fallen 35% from its post-IPO listing peak, though it has rebounded about 35% since an August low and remains up over the past three months, according to Livemint. The stock is still down nearly 10% from its first-day closing price, and options markets are pricing in a large post-earnings swing.

Analyst opinion is split but tilting bullish. Bernstein reiterated a Buy rating with a $248 price target, implying substantial upside from recent levels — though analysts caution that estimates vary widely because the valuation now depends on Starlink and AI far more than on rocket launches.

The risks are real. Analysts warn that a revenue miss — or guidance pointing to even heavier 2027 capital spending — could pressure the stock after SpaceX earnings land. Insider-share lockup releases and uncertainty around Musk’s proposed giveaway of one SpaceX share to every American child (roughly 73 million children, worth more than $10 billion at recent prices, per Defense World) could add supply and volatility. Musk says the shares would come from his own holdings, so existing shareholders would not be diluted — but eligibility, timing, custody, and tax details remain unclear.

Read more: Elon Musk SpaceX Giveaway: One Share for Every Kid in America in 2027

Five Things to Listen For on the SpaceX Earnings Call

Beyond the headline numbers, tonight’s SpaceX earnings call will be graded on the details. Here are the five questions analysts are asking:

1. Starlink profitability and subscriber growth. Livemint reports that investors are focused on Starlink’s growth, subscriber gains, and profitability. With subscriptions doubling year over year to 12 million, the question is whether the satellite business can fund the AI buildout without endless outside capital.

2. AI revenue conversion. The multiyear contracts with Alphabet and Anthropic were highlights of Q2. Tonight, analysts want dollar figures — evidence that the 247% AI revenue growth rate is durable and that the $15.8 billion in quarterly AI capex is already paying for itself.

3. Cash burn and the 2027 spending plan. Evercore’s estimate of $151 billion in 2027 capital expenditures is the number haunting the stock. Any guidance that trims that figure would likely be cheered; anything higher could spark a sell-off.

4. Launch cadence. Today alone, SpaceX is attempting a Falcon 9 launch from Vandenberg that would tie California’s annual launch record — with a second mission expected to set a new record of 72 launches for 2026. A 32-mile natural-gas pipeline for Florida facilities is also in the works. Investors want to know how launch volume translates into launch revenue.

5. What comes after tonight. With Tesla reporting Wednesday, back-to-back Musk earnings could set the tone for tech into November. A strong SpaceX earnings report could steady a market still shaky from last week’s AI sell-off; a miss could send the AI trade — and SPCX — into another tailspin.

SpaceX Earnings Kick Off a Huge Week for Musk Inc.

Tonight’s SpaceX earnings open a consequential stretch. Tesla reports third-quarter results on Wednesday, October 21 — a day after SpaceX — and Netflix also reports after the close today, making this one of the heaviest earnings days of the quarter. The earnings run arrives as the tech market tries to stabilize after last week’s AI-driven sell-off; the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 1.61% on Monday to snap an eight-session losing streak.

There is also a second storyline to watch tonight: growth investments. SpaceX is seeking approval to substantially increase Starship launch activity and is planning a 32-mile natural-gas pipeline to serve its Florida facilities — projects that could support higher launch volume but reinforce concerns about the company’s heavy spending.

For Indian and US investors alike, SpaceX earnings tonight are about one thing: proof that the AI and Starlink story can carry a valuation that rocket launches alone never could. The numbers land after the US close — and Wall Street is holding its breath.

The reporting on today’s SpaceX earnings comes from Livemint, the Economic Times, Nasdaq, and Defense World. This article previews the results and does not predict them; all figures cited are analysts’ published expectations, not the company’s reported numbers.

Images: AI-generated symbolic illustrations (no real photos used).